Tuesday, March 18, 2008

MSFTRADAMUS

I'm really bored with all this talk of Yahoo.

I think it's clear by now that Yahoo! has *some* value, and the debate is on about the mutually agreeable quantification of that value...for all parties in this orgy(Yang, Yahoo! Board, Yahoo! Shareholders, Ballmer, Microsoft, yada yada..). And such a debate could be endless.

So I thought I should shut up and draw a few boxes, connect them with arrows, and see what happens.

Here's what happened:



This is quite a soup Microsoft has gotten itself into.

- Will Yahoo! add value to Microsoft? Yes.
- Can Microsoft capitalize and grow that value? No.
- Where does that value go in a merger? To offset the declining value of Microsoft.
- Is a Yahoo! acquisition enough to repair existing Microsoft damage? No.
- Can Microsoft afford more such acquisitions? Probably not.
- Is MicroHoo just a way to extend the Microsoft life line? You bet. $45 billion?!! They're GASPING for air..!!
- What Ballmer is probably thinking: Dude, where's my car?
- What Yang's thinking: King Kong ain't got shit on me.
- And Schmidt's kickin' it with the Page twins, wondering: THESE are the pirates of Silicon Valley???!!

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